The National Retail Federation (NRF) released its 2026 holiday forecast on October 15, and the headline number is big: it expects US holiday retail sales to grow 4.2% over last year and reach about $1.013 trillion.
NRF tracks overall retail spending, not digital downloads, so this isn’t a forecast for PLR or ebook sales. But it’s a useful signal about the season you’re planning for. Here’s what the release says and how to use it.
What NRF is forecasting
- Holiday sales: growth of 4.2% over 2025, to roughly $1.013 trillion.
- Last year: holiday sales rose 3.1% over 2024, to $972 billion.
- The season: NRF counts November 1 through December 31.
- What’s excluded: auto dealers, gas stations and restaurants, so the number focuses on core retail.
- Seasonal hiring: 325,000 to 375,000 temporary retail workers.
NRF’s leaders described shoppers as resilient but budget-minded. The release points to higher gas prices, persistent inflation, higher interest rates and elevated consumer debt, and NRF’s chief economist noted that these pressures will hit households differently depending on income.
What it means if you sell PLR-based or digital products
A forecast like this doesn’t guarantee anything for a small shop. Still, it supports a few practical moves for the next six weeks:
- Have your holiday products live by early November. NRF’s season starts November 1. If you’re turning holiday PLR into planners, gift tags, recipe cards or email-ready content, finishing the rebrand now gives you time to list, test downloads and collect a few reviews before the rush.
- Offer something at a budget-friendly price. Budget-conscious shoppers still buy, but they compare. A low-priced printable or a small bundle next to your main product gives people an easy yes.
- Make the value obvious. Show exactly what’s in the download, the file formats and how it’s used. That matters more when buyers are watching every dollar.
- Check your licenses before you sell. Holiday packs often include images and fonts with their own terms. Make sure your PLR license lets you resell the finished product in the form you plan to sell it.
For the license side, our guides to checking fonts and images in PLR packs and pricing products made from PLR are good next reads.
The bottom line
The biggest retail trade group expects holiday spending to grow faster than last year, with shoppers keeping an eye on their budgets. For digital product sellers, that’s a nudge to get seasonal products finished early, keep a low-priced option on the shelf and describe exactly what buyers get. Results for any individual shop will vary.
Sources
Featured image: Photo: rawpixel (CC0)